Polymarket BTC 15-Min Up/Down Bot
A setup on my own VPS for testing trading ideas on Polymarket. The core is an agent that estimates the “true” odds of a market and only bets when the price is off by enough to matter. The first strategy I’m running on it is BTC 15-minute Up/Down.
Gallery
How it works
- Scan: pulls active markets from the Polymarket CLOB API
- Predict: LLM agents (Claude, with Kimi and Nvidia NIM as backups) read the context and output a probability. For BTC 15-min, a signal scores each round and outputs a direction plus confidence
- Validate: compares my probability to the market price, calculates edge, sizes with fractional Kelly, and rejects anything outside risk limits
- Execute: places orders through the Polymarket SDK, paper/dry-run by default
- Alert & log: every candidate goes to Telegram and gets logged with the signal behind it
Where it’s at
Still paper trading. The first BTC run was 5 trades at $1, 2 wins and 3 losses, basically flat. The more useful part was reading the log: the bot was paying 97¢+ for bets it was only ~70% sure about, the sim wasn’t waiting for markets to resolve, and the PnL % had a sign bug on shorts. That’s exactly what the Validate step is supposed to catch, so I’m fixing the wiring there before anything goes live.
Details
- Type
- Fun project
- Stack
- Python, Node.js, Claude API, Polymarket CLOB API, Hetzner VPS, PM2, Telegram (BotFather)