Polymarket Weather Bot
Polymarket has markets like “Will Seattle hit 64°F tomorrow?” Weather models are usually better at that than random bettors. So I built a bot that checks the forecast, finds markets priced way off, and bets $1 on them.
Gallery
How it works
- Pulls forecasts from HRRR for US cities and ECMWF for everywhere else
- Compares the forecast to each temperature market’s price
- Buys when the gap is big enough, often on outcomes the market priced at a few cents or less
- Exits automatically on stop-loss, take-profit, or when the forecast shifts
- Runs on my VPS and logs every trade
Results
22 trades across 13 cities, $1 each. 9 wins, 6 losses on closed positions. Most of the profit came from a couple of long shots where the market priced something at under 1% and the forecast said it was likely. Which is either the whole point of the bot or a lucky week, still figuring out which.
Details
- Type
- Fun project
- Stack
- Python, Polymarket CLOB API, HRRR/ECMWF weather data, Hetzner VPS